Tag Archives: prognostic

Pregnancy and childbirth, Women's health

Planning for pregnancy

This article discusses the effects of MS on fertility, decisions about starting or stopping a DMT, the use and safety of oral contraceptives and the possible impact of in vitro fertilisation on MS disease course.

Does MS affect my fertility?

No, MS does not affect fertility. Women and men with MS are as fertile as people without MS. However, MS does not protect women and men from other causes of infertility. Fertility treatment may impact MS (see below). Please be aware that mitoxantrone, AHSCT (autologous haemopoietic stem cell treatment) and other chemotherapy treatments, such as cyclophosphamide used off-label to treat MS, may be toxic to ovarian and testicular function and require egg and sperm banking before treatment.

Should I go onto a DMT and get my MS under control before starting a family or first start my family?

In general, I recommend that women with active MS delay pregnancy until their disease is under control, optimise their general health and prepare properly for becoming a parent. There is no point in having active MS, not starting a DMT and having a catastrophic relapse in the period during which you are trying to fall pregnant.

However, a desire to start or extend your family should not change the way you want your MS managed. Early effective treatment, treating to a target of NEIDA, potentially flipping the pyramid, preventing end-organ damage and the holistic management of MS are all compatible with pregnancy. There are no rules for implementing this strategy in pregnancy because all decisions should be personalised. For example, a woman with rapidly evolving severe MS may choose natalizumab and stay on it throughout pregnancy and while breastfeeding because her MS was so active and potentially devastating. Another woman who is young, risk adverse and with a very good prognosis may choose to delay starting a DMT until she has had a child. Yet another woman, diagnosed at 40, may not want to delay falling pregnant and may opt for a DMT that is safe during pregnancy.

It is up to the person with MS, their partner and sometimes their extended family to make the final decisions about how to manage their MS during pregnancy. The healthcare professional (HCP) is there to provide information and guidance in this process.

Are oral contraceptives safe in people with MS?

To my knowledge, contraceptives are safe and effective in women with MS. The same contraindications and relative contraindications to specific contraceptives apply to women with MS as to the general population. Hormonal contraceptives are associated with an increased risk of thrombosis; women with MS who are immobile thus have a higher risk of deep vein thrombosis than those who are mobile.

Which contraceptive would you recommend?

MS should not be the deciding factor around the choice of contraceptive unless the degree of MS-related disability makes managing menstrual hygiene difficult. In this case, contraceptives that suppress menstruation have advantages, for example, continuous hormonal contraceptives or the progestin-tipped intrauterine contraceptive device (Mirena).

Inclusion criteria for participation in specific drug trials sometimes mandate double contraception, for example, a hormonal contraceptive and a barrier method. This is to try and avoid accidental pregnancies while taking an investigational compound without a safety track record in humans.

How long before I fall pregnant must I stop my DMT?

It depends on which DMT you are taking. Only the DMTs that are teratogenic or potentially teratogenic (i.e., may cause foetal malformations) need to be stopped before you fall pregnant. It is essential to allow sufficient time for these agents to be eliminated from the body.

Teriflunomide

Teriflunomide has the potential to cause birth defects; therefore, patients must have effective contraception whilst on this treatment. It has a very long half-life because it is reabsorbed in the intestine and is eliminated slowly from the plasma. Without an accelerated elimination procedure, it takes up to 8 months to reach plasma concentrations of less than 0.02 mg/l, which are considered safe. Remarkably, due to individual variations in teriflunomide clearance, it may take up to 2 years to fall to acceptable levels. An accelerated elimination procedure with cholestyramine or activated charcoal can be used at any time after the discontinuation of teriflunomide.

Teriflunomide accelerated elimination procedure

After stopping treatment with teriflunomide:

• Cholestyramine 8 g is administered three times daily for 11 days, or cholestyramine 4 g three times a day can be used if cholestyramine 8 g three times a day is not well tolerated.

• Alternatively, 50 g of activated powdered charcoal is administered every 12 hours for 11 days.

Following either of the accelerated elimination procedures, it is recommended to verify elimination by checking teriflunomide blood levels and allow a waiting period of 1.5 months between the first occurrence of a plasma concentration below 0.02 mg/l and planned fertilisation.

S1P modulators

S1P modulators are contraindicated during pregnancy, owing to the risk to the foetus. Before starting treatment in women of childbearing potential, we do a urine pregnancy test. Women taking an S1P modulator must use effective contraception during treatment and then continue for:

  • 2 months after stopping treatment with fingolimod (Gilenya)
  • 10 days after stopping treatment with siponimod (Mayzent)
  • 3 months after stopping treatment with ozanimod (Zeposia)
  • 7 days after stopping treatment with ponesimod (Ponvory).

Stopping the S1P modulators brings the potential for rebound disease activity, so most neurologists now prefer to transition women on one of these therapies to another class of DMT that is considered safer in pregnancy.

Safer options

Safer options during pregnancy include an injectable (interferon-beta or glatiramer acetate), a fumarate, an anti-CD20 therapy, natalizumab or an immune reconstitution therapy (cladribine or alemtuzumab). I cover some of the issues related to anti-CD20 therapies in the MS-Selfie case study ‘Wait to fall pregnant or start a DMT now?’.

The good news is that several DMT options are now available to women with MS wanting to fall pregnant.

Can I have IVF, and what will IVF do to my MS?

There is no reason why a person with MS cannot have IVF (in vitro fertilisation). However, there appears to be a slightly increased risk of relapse after IVF and egg harvesting. Whether this is due to stopping DMTs before undergoing IVF or due to the drugs used to stimulate ovulation is unknown. Studies reporting an increase in disease activity after IVF are more likely to be published than studies not showing such an increase so that publication bias may affect the findings. I recommend viewing IVF as a planned pregnancy and giving women with MS the option of receiving a DMT that is relatively safe in pregnancy or treating their MS with immune reconstitution therapy before IVF.

References

Krysko KM et al. Treatment of women with multiple sclerosis planning pregnancy. Curr Treat Options Neurol 2021;23:11.

Other articles in this series on Pregnancy and childbirth:
Managing MS during pregnancy
Preparing to give birth
Breastfeeding if you are on a DMT
Concerns about parenting

Brain health and holistic management of MS, Causes and prevention of MS

What prognostic group do I fall into?

Having some idea of how bad your MS is, or not, will allow you to discuss important issues with your neurologist so that you can make an informed decision about your MS treatment.

Key points

  • It is hard to predict the disease course of MS accurately for an individual.
  • Population data allow us to define three broad prognostic MS categories: good, indeterminate or poor.
  • Given sufficient time, most people with MS will do badly without treatment.
  • Factors linked to poor prognosis in untreated people with MS are listed.
  • The wide use of disease-modifying therapies is changing the natural history of MS for the better.
  • Adopting a healthy lifestyle, in parallel with appropriate treatment, can help to improve outcomes.  

Predicting MS outcomes: an imperfect science

We can’t predict the prognosis of an individual person with MS very accurately. So don’t let your neurologist mislead you if he or she says you are likely to have benign MS. ‘Benign MS’ is a relative term and can only be used retrospectively once you have had MS for many years or decades. In the era before disease-modifying treatments (DMTs), most people with MS would eventually become disabled, which is why I prefer not to use the term benign MS to predict outcomes. I now use it as a treatment aim, because we want all people with MS to have benign disease.

Three broad prognostic categories

Applying population data to place an individual into a broad prognostic group is often helpful. It allows you to frame your disease in terms of potential outcomes and may help you balance the risks of some treatments against the potential impact of MS later in your life. Predicting outcomes in MS is comparable to an actuary working in the insurance industry; we try to give you an average prognosis with a wide range of possibilities or errors. For this reason, I try to keep it simple and classify people with MS into three prognostic categories: poor, indeterminate, or good. Poor in this context means that if you leave MS to its own devices and let it run its natural course, the average person in this category will do badly.

Most people with a predicted poor prognosis will do badly without treatment for their MS.

Given sufficient time, most people with MS will deteriorate without treatment. This is why I actively promote treatment based on the scientific rationale that preventing damage now will protect your brain reserve and cognitive reserve and improve your long-term outcome. This is the philosophy behind the MS Brain Health initiative and the report Brain health: time matters in multiple sclerosis,1 which everyone with MS should take time to read. 

Factors linked to poor prognosis

Below is a list of factors that have been linked to poor prognosis in people who have not received a DMT. If you have fewer than five of these factors, you are likely to have a good outcome. In comparison, people with ten or more of these factors fall into the poor prognostic group. Most people with MS fall into the intermediate (indeterminate) prognostic group, with 5–10 of these factors. Some of these baseline factors are modifiable,2,3 so you can make the effort to help improve your own prognosis. 

Please note that the factors listed here only apply to people with MS who are untreated.  It is clear that DMTs are changing the outcome of MS.

  1. Older age of onset (greater than 40 years).
  2. Male sex.
  3. Multifocal onset – more than one site in the nervous system involved with the initial attack.
  4. Efferent or effector system is affected early – that is, the motor (power), cerebellar (balance and coordination) or bladder and bowel functions.  
  5. Partial or no recovery from initial relapses – do you have residual deficits from your initial attacks?
  6. A high relapse rate in the first 2 years – that is, more than two relapses. 
  7. Early disability – an Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) score > 3.0 within 5 years of symptom onset indicates a poor prognosis. You can calculate your EDSS using an online calculator (web-EDSS calculator).
  8. Abnormal magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scan with large lesion load – more than nine T2 lesions (white blobs) on the baseline MRI.
  9. Active or enhancing lesions on your baseline (initial) MRI – enhancing lesions imply that the lesions are new and actively inflamed.
  10. Posterior fossa lesions on the MRI – these refer to lesions in the back of the brain that involve the brainstem and cerebellum.
  11. Lesions in the spinal cord on MRI.
  12. Obvious early brain atrophy on MRI – brain atrophy refers to premature shrinkage of the brain over and above what you would expect for your age. This information is unlikely to be available to you because neuroradiologists often do not measure or comment on it. 
  13. Retinal thinning on optic coherence tomography (OCT) – people with MS who have lost a lot of retinal nerve fibres do worse than people with a normal retina. Yes, the eye is truly a window into what is happening in the brain of someone with MS. 
  14. Abnormal cerebrospinal fluid – positive immunoglobulin (Ig) bands (known as oligoclonal bands, OCBs) in the spinal fluid.
  15. Raised neurofilament levels in your spinal fluid – this test may not be part of routine care at your neurology centre. Neurofilaments are proteins that are released from damaged nerve fibres, and high neurofilament levels indicate greater damage and poorer outcome than low levels.
  16. Low vitamin D levels – this is controversial, but several studies have shown that people with MS with low vitamin D levels do worse than those with higher levels. These observations do not necessarily imply that by taking vitamin D you will do better. Low vitamin D levels may be related to reverse causation, in that the MS-associated inflammation uses up vitamin D; more inflammation indicates worse MS and is therefore linked with greater depletion of vitamin D levels.
  17. Smoking – smokers with MS do worse than non-smokers. This is modifiable and it is one of many reasons why you should try and give up smoking. 
  18. Comorbidities – people with MS who are obese, have diabetes, prediabetes, hypertension or raised cholesterol do worse than people with MS without these comorbidities.4
  19. Cognitive impairment – people with MS with poor cognitive function do worse than people with MS with good cognition. You can’t really assess your own cognition at present; you need to have it tested by a neuropsychologist.

‘It won’t happen to me’

Humans have interesting psychology in that they tend to consider themselves to be the exception to the rule. Gamblers don’t enter a casino to lose; they always believe they will win. A person with lung cancer who starts chemotherapy believes they will be one of the 10% who is cured. When someone is diagnosed with MS, they believe they will be one of the 30% with benign disease. (The current view among MS neurologists is that 30% of untreated people with MS will have benign disease.) 

This definition of ‘benign MS’ is based on having no or little disability at 15 years since onset, i.e., an EDSS score of 3.0 or less (no visible disability). However, when you interrogate people with so-called benign MS you find that more than 50% of them have hidden symptoms of depression, anxiety or cognitive impairment. Can we really justify this definition of benign MS? What is more, when you follow people with benign MS past 15 years, only 15% remain benign at 25 years and 5% at 30 years. If you get to 40 years of follow-up, half of these with benign MS will become disabled over the next 10 years.

Moving towards a more favourable outcome

Many will state that these figures are now out of date and there are newer and better figures, which show MS is a more benign disease. You are right, and there are several very good reasons for this. In population-based studies, the proportion of subjects with benign MS is greater than in hospital- or clinic-based studies; for example, in the Olmsted Mayo Clinic MS population, about 45% have benign disease at 15 years. The reason for this is that people with MS with benign disease often drop out of hospital follow-up, but still show up in population-based studies. 

The earlier diagnosis of MS, that is, identification of those who would not have been diagnosed in the past, is changing the definition of MS. For example, most people with a clinically isolated syndrome (CIS) are now being diagnosed as having MS. The wide use of DMTs is beginning to change the natural history of MS for the better; making sure that people with MS adopt a healthy lifestyle is another strategy that can be done in parallel. 

With currently available high-efficacy DMTs and the prospect of effective combination treatments in the future, the proportion of people with MS who experience normal ageing is set to increase. The blue areas illustrate the likely number of people with MS in each prognostic category.
With currently available high-efficacy DMTs and the prospect of effective combination treatments in the future, the proportion of people with MS who experience normal ageing is set to increase. The blue areas illustrate the likely number of people with MS in each prognostic category.
With currently available high-efficacy DMTs and the prospect of effective combination treatments in the future, the proportion of people with MS who experience normal ageing is set to increase. The blue areas illustrate the likely number of people with MS in each prognostic category.
With currently available high-efficacy DMTs and the prospect of effective combination treatments in the future, the proportion of people with MS who experience normal ageing is set to increase. The blue areas illustrate the likely number of people with MS in each prognostic category.

With currently available high-efficacy DMTs and the prospect of effective combination treatments in the future, the proportion of people with MS who experience normal ageing is set to increase. The blue areas illustrate the likely proportion of people with MS in each prognostic category.

The above figures illustrate what we aim to do with currently available high-efficacy DMTs (compared with older, lower efficacy treatments). We are simply trying to move you to the right, into a more favourable prognostic group. In other words, we want to make sure your MS is benign and that you reach old age with as healthy a brain as possible. Your brain reserve and cognitive reserve protect you from developing age-related cognitive impairment and dementia. MS reduces both of these reserves, which is why it is so important to protect them. With the prospect of effective combination treatments in the future, the proportion of people with MS who experience normal ageing is set to increase.

References

  1. Giovannoni G, et al. Brain health: time matters in multiple sclerosis. 2015, Oxford Health Policy Forum CIC.
  2. Miller DH, et al. Clinically isolated syndromes. Lancet Neurol 2012: 11:157–69.
  3. Weld-Blundell IV, et al. Lifestyle and complementary therapies in multiple sclerosis guidelines: Systematic review. Acta Neurol Scand 2022;145:379–92.
  4. Kappus N, et al. Cardiovascular risk factors are associated with increased lesion burden and brain atrophy in multiple sclerosis. J Neurol Neurosurg Psychiatry 2016;87:181–7.