Tag Archives: immunoglobulin

Pregnancy and childbirth, Women's health

Managing MS during pregnancy

Opinion on how MS impacts pregnancy is based largely on data that predate the current era of active treatment and the newer generation of disease-modifying therapies (DMTs). In this section I have therefore addressed many of the important issues that women who are considering pregnancy need to understand, including:

  • the effect of pregnancy on the course of MS
  • how to manage relapse during pregnancy
  • the role of naturally occurring interferon-beta and its possible implications for women with MS taking therapeutic interferon-beta
  • management of MS symptoms and morning sickness during pregnancy
  • the crucial issue of DMT safety and possible teratogenic effects on the developing foetus.

Will pregnancy affect the course of my MS?

Yes, pregnancy effects on MS have been observed at a group level, though it is difficult to notice changes in individuals. It is well known that MS attack rates drop during the second and third trimesters of pregnancy and relapses rebound again in the first 6 months after delivery. However, only a minority of women with MS have post-partum relapses. Breastfeeding may blunt the post-partum rebound, but this is not absolute. Therefore, most neurologists now recommend starting or restarting DMTs soon after delivery to try and prevent post-partum relapses.

At a population level, the more children you have, the better your overall prognosis. This effect is small and is based on studies done in the pre-DMT era. It may be due to the immunological effects of pregnancy that work like a DMT in MS. Immunologists have tried to understand this phenomenon in the hope of developing treatments for MS that mimic the pregnancy state.

How is a relapse managed during pregnancy?

In the event of having a relapse during pregnancy, a short course of high-dose corticosteroids can be considered. However, I limit using steroids to disabling and/or severe relapses, especially early in the first trimester, as there is a small risk of orofacial abnormalities (cleft lip and palate) and reduced birth weight from exposure of the developing foetus to high-dose steroids. There is also a risk of precipitating gestational diabetes in women receiving high doses of steroids during pregnancy. In the rare situation of a severe relapse unresponsive to high-dose steroids, plasma exchange may need to be considered.

Could neutralising antibodies to therapeutic interferon-beta affect my baby?

Naturally occurring interferon-beta is a cytokine (cell-signalling agent) produced by the body to help fight infections. As there is only one human interferon-beta, antibodies to therapeutic interferon-beta (IFN-beta) will neutralise the body’s own natural interferon-beta. If you are taking IFN-beta for your MS, there is thus a theoretical risk that neutralising antibodies (NABs) to the DMT might cross the placenta and affect the role of human interferon-beta in foetal development.

Interferon-beta is important for innate immunity and neutralising your own interferon-beta may put you at risk of getting viral infections. Interferon-beta also plays a role in foetal bone development, but the placenta does not mature in relation to immunoglobulin transfer until near the end of the second trimester of pregnancy, so it is unlikely that sufficient NABs cross the blood ̶ placental barrier to affect foetal bone development. However, in the third trimester, NABs will cross over the placenta into the foetal circulation and may impact the baby’s innate immunity. Despite these theoretical concerns, there is no indication from published data to support these potential adverse effects of NABs on IFN-beta.

If I fall pregnant while on a DMT, will this affect the baby?

This depends on which DMT you are taking and what you mean by ‘affecting the baby’. We worry most about teratogenic effects, which describe congenital malformations. Teriflunomide, S1P modulators and cladribine are generally classified as drugs that may be teratogenic, and hence precautions need to be taken so as not to fall pregnant on these agents. Foetal malformations usually occur very early in foetal development, often before the woman knows she is pregnant; therefore, it is difficult to do anything about it once foetal exposure occurs. Despite this, even for women who are on these agents and fall pregnant, we don’t automatically recommend termination of pregnancy. We refer them to the high-risk pregnancy clinic to discuss the options with an obstetrician. Many women continue their pregnancies with an uneventful outcome and a normal baby. On the other hand, some women choose the option of terminating their pregnancy.

A large amount of data from MS pregnancy registries and post-marketing surveillance indicates no increased risk of major congenital anomalies or spontaneous abortions (miscarriages) after exposure to interferon-beta or glatiramer acetate. Most neurologists are, therefore, comfortable with their female patients falling pregnant on these agents, continuing the treatment through pregnancy and then breastfeeding their babies.

Fumarates (dimethyl fumarate [Tecfidera], diroximel fumarate [Vumerity]) are not teratogenic and are unlikely to have a negative impact on pregnancy outcomes. We need more data from registries and post-marketing surveillance before we can be confident that the fumarates are safe during pregnancy. However, these agents are prodrugs and converted to monomethyl fumarate, which is part of our metabolism, so it is very unlikely that the fumarates will cause problems. I don’t have an issue with women falling pregnant on the fumarates and continuing them through pregnancy, but there is conflicting advice about this.

Should I continue taking drugs for my MS symptoms during pregnancy?

Yes and no. It depends on what the medications are for and whether they are safe during pregnancy. Ideally, you should wean off any symptomatic therapies or at least change to alternative medications that are safe to take during pregnancy. It is important to try and plan your pregnancy and if necessary be referred to a special medical pregnancy clinic so that these issues can be addressed. Many women with MS find that their MS-related symptoms improve during pregnancy, and they can do without symptomatic therapies. However, unless you are prepared to wean yourself off symptomatic therapies you won’t know.

Physical therapies should be continued during pregnancy. One could argue that everyone with MS should be physically active and do pelvic floor exercises. Pregnancy and childbirth may impact bladder and bowel function, so it is important to see a pelvic floor therapist to start pelvic floor exercises. The latter are taught to women in antenatal classes.

How do you treat morning sickness or hyperemesis gravidarum during pregnancy?

Treating morning sickness or hyperemesis gravidarum is no different in women with MS than in the general population. It involves hydration, vitamin supplements (in particular, thiamine) and the judicious use of antiemetics (for example, cyclizine, prochlorperazine, promethazine, chlorpromazine, metoclopramide and domperidone). If the vomiting extends into the second trimester, ondansetron can be used. In very severe cases of morning sickness, steroids may be required; for example, hydrocortisone 100 mg twice daily can be converted to prednisolone 40 ̶ 50 mg daily by mouth, which can then be tapered to the lowest level that still controls symptoms. For patients taking a fumarate, try and take your medication later in the morning when you are less likely to vomit.

What dose of vitamin D do you advise during pregnancy?

During pregnancy vitamin D requirements are increased and I recommend doubling the dose for supplementation from 4,000 IU of vitamin D3 to 8,000 IU per day. At the same time, women who are pregnant should be on iron and folate supplements that should ideally be started before falling pregnant.

References

Krysko KM et al. Treatment of women with multiple sclerosis planning pregnancy. Curr Treat Options Neurol 2021;23:11.

Other articles in this series on Pregnancy and childbirth
Planning for pregnancy
Preparing to give birth
Breastfeeding if you are on a DMT
Concerns about parenting

DMTsSafety, Monitoring MS

How can I reduce my chances of adverse events on specific DMTs?

The complications associated with immunosuppression vary from DMT to DMT. You will find it helpful to understand what investigations to expect before and during treatment and how these may vary depending on the DMT(s) you are considering.

Key points

  • Numerous tests are carried out at the start of your treatment (baseline); these include blood, urine and tests for a range of infections.
  • Some patients will need tests or procedures specific to their DMT that are inappropriate for everyone with MS – for example, vaccination against some infections; pregnancy and/or genetic counselling; prevention of cardiovascular complications; and management of infusion reactions.
  • Ongoing monitoring is required for many but not all of the above factors.
  • All licensed MS DMTs have had a thorough risk ̶ benefit assessment, and their benefits are considered to outweigh the potential risks.

Standard tests … and why we do them

If you have read the article on immunosuppression, you will know that immunosuppressive DMTs may reduce white blood cell counts and antibody responses to vaccines and increase the likelihood of some infections and cancers. However, we can reduce the risk of many complications associated with long-term immunosuppression (we use the shorthand ‘de-risk’). This article explains what needs to be done at the start of DMT administration (baseline) and during subsequent monitoring. The specifics, however, vary from DMT to DMT.

Baseline tests

Tests at baseline (before starting DMT administration) include full blood count, platelets, liver, kidney and thyroid function tests, and a urine screen. Recording baseline immunoglobulin levels is particularly important if you are about to start an anti-CD20 therapy (ocrelizumab, ofatumumab or rituximab) so that we have a reference level for future comparisons. 

Serum protein electrophoresis is done for patients considering starting interferon-beta; having a so-called monoclonal gammopathy (an abnormal immunoglobulin) is a contraindication to starting an interferon-beta formulation in people with MS. The drug has been associated with a form of capillary leak syndrome, leading in rare cases to death from an adult respiratory distress syndrome.

The table below summarises the routine investigations required at baseline; subsequent sections provide further detail.

Tests routinely carried out at the start of treatment (baseline).
AHSCT, autologous haematopoietic stem cell transplantation; CMV, cytomegalovirus; CSF, cerebrospinal fluid; DMT, disease-modifying therapy; EBV, Epstein ̶ Barr virus; ECG, electrocardiogram; FBC, full blood count; HIV, human immunodeficiency virus; HPV, human papillomavirus; JCV, JC virus; LFTs, liver function tests; MMR, measles/mumps/rubella; MRI, magnetic resonance imaging; PCP, pneumocystis pneumonia; PML, progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy; TB ELISpot, tuberculosis enzyme-linked immune absorbent spot; TFTs, thyroid function tests; U&E, urea and electrolytes; VZV, varicella zoster virus.

Infection screening

At our centre, we screen for a relatively large number of infectious diseases so that we can treat any subclinical infection before starting a DMT. This is particularly relevant for HIV-1 and 2, hepatitis B and C, syphilis and tuberculosis (TB).  

Screening for the JC virus (JCV), which causes progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy (PML), is only really needed for people with MS considering starting natalizumab. Even if you are JCV positive, you can be treated with natalizumab for 6 ̶ 12 months and sometimes longer if you are prepared to take on the risk and the extra monitoring required to detect PML early. 

We only check measles/mumps/rubella (MMR) status in patients without documentation of full vaccination as children. We check varicella zoster virus (VZV) status before starting immunosuppression and vaccinate seronegative individuals. Currently, we are still using the live VZV vaccine. This will change, and we will likely be offering all people with MS in the UK the component inactive VZV vaccine (Shingrix, that has had its licence extended) to reduce the chances of zoster reactivation in all adults starting immunosuppression. This new Shingrix indication is similar to the pneumococcal vaccine (Pneumovax). Our centre is only recommending Pneumovax in patients about to start an anti-CD20. However, when Shingrix becomes available on the NHS, it will make sense to bundle this with the Pneumovax and make it routine for all people with MS before starting immunosuppressive therapy. Please check with your healthcare team which products are available locally.

Routine tests and monitoring for Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) and cytomegalovirus (CMV) are only needed for subjects undergoing autologous haematopoietic stem cell transplantation (AHSCT), which causes profound short-term immunosuppression that can result in CMV and EBV reactivation. CMV reactivation also occurs with alemtuzumab, so this needs to be considered when investigating patients who develop complications after receiving alemtuzumab (please see Opportunistic infection in MS). 

For patients starting long-term immunosuppression, it is advisable to screen for active human papillomavirus (HPV) infection (by cervical smear or vaginal swab) and for warts or active infection with molluscum contagiosum. Warts are caused by HPV skin infection; molluscum contagiosum is due to a relatively benign pox virus that typically affects young children but occasionally affects adults. Warts and molluscum contagiosum can spread rapidly in patients receiving alemtuzumab, so I recommend treating these skin infections before starting immunosuppression for MS. 

Vaccinations

We encourage all patients to be vaccinated against COVID-19 and seasonal flu; outside the flu vaccine season, we remind people to get vaccinated during the next vaccine season. 

Hepatitis B, meningococcal and Haemophilus influenzae vaccines are considered only for people with MS who are at high risk of infection and have not had these vaccines as part of a national vaccine programme, i.e. healthcare and laboratory workers for hepatitis B, school and university students and military recruits for meningococcal vaccine and paediatric patients for Haemophilus influenzae. 

The issue around having the HPV vaccine as an adult is more complex. For example, in the UK, the NHS does not cover the cost of the vaccine for people over 25. In addition, most people have only had the quadrivalent vaccine (Gardasil-4), which covers about two-thirds of the strains that cause cancer. Some people with MS may want to upgrade their immunity with the polyvalent vaccine (Gardasil-9) that covers over 95% of the cancer-causing strains of HPV. For more information on HPV vaccination, please see Case study: cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) and ocrelizumab.

MMR is a live vaccine given in childhood (see MMR vaccine: to vaccinate or not? ). Owing to vaccine hesitancy, however, many people do not receive this vaccine as children. Therefore, if an adult with MS is about to start immunosuppressive therapy and has not been vaccinated against MMR, we advise them to do so. This is particularly important for people about to start natalizumab because these viruses are neurotropic and can infect the brain. Natalizumab blocks immune response within the brain; hence, exposure to a neurotropic virus could cause serious infection, similar to what we see with the JC virus – which causes PML.

Travel vaccines for people who travel as part of their work or plan to travel shortly need to be considered. In particular, the yellow fever vaccine is a live vaccine (made from a weakened yellow fever virus strain) and it should ideally be given before someone starts on immunosuppressive therapy. 

Cardiovascular screening

You may need an ECG (electrocardiogram), to rule out an abnormal heart rhythm or electrical conduction abnormality and to check your left ventricular function (ejection fraction). These abnormalities are a relative contraindication to using the S1P modulators (fingolimod, siponimod, ozanimod, ponesimod), which may affect the conduction of the heart. In patients treated with mitoxantrone, the left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) must be done at baseline and regularly monitored because mitoxantrone is toxic to the heart. If the LVEF drops significantly, further dosing of mitoxantrone is contraindicated. 

Pregnancy, family planning and genetic testing

Many chemotherapy agents used in AHSCT for ablating (extracting) the bone marrow are toxic to the ovaries and testes. Therefore, patients receive counselling before treatment and can have eggs (oocytes) or sperm banked for future use. Egg banking is also an issue for women with MS being treated with mitoxantrone. Men receiving mitoxantrone do not need to bank sperm, however, because mitoxantrone does not cross the testes ̶ blood barrier. 

Genetic testing is only required at present if you wish to receive siponimod. Siponimod is metabolised by a specific liver enzyme (biological catalyst) with two functional variants – slow metabolising and fast metabolising. People who carry two slow-metabolising variants of the enzyme cannot receive siponimod. Intermediate metabolisers (those that carry one slow- and one fast-metabolising version of the enzyme) receive low-dose siponimod, while those with two fast-metabolising enzymes receive high-dose siponimod. 

Protecting against progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy

I have included magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and lumbar puncture with cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) testing for JCV among the baseline tests. This is specific to patients at high risk of developing PML who are switching from natalizumab to a depleting immune reconstitution therapy such as alemtuzumab or another therapy that depletes their immune system (e.g. cladribine or an anti-CD20 therapy). These tests are done to exclude asymptomatic PML, which will otherwise be carried over to the new treatment. The effects of these immunosuppressive therapies on your immune system cannot be rapidly reversed, which is a problem because immune reconstitution is needed to clear PML. Most MS centres do not mandate CSF testing in this situation because it does not always reveal the presence of PML. However, I still request this test on my patients to gain as much information as possible on which to base potentially life-changing decisions.

Prophylactic antivirals and antibiotics

Patients in our centre undergoing AHSCT or receiving alemtuzumab will be given antivirals and antibiotics to reduce the likelihood of certain infections. This is particularly relevant for listeriosis, which is a rare infection transmitted via food. We also encourage all our patients to start and maintain a specific diet to reduce the chances of listeriosis. The risk of listeriosis is only present for a short period when both the adaptive and innate immune systems are compromised, that is, for 4 weeks after receiving alemtuzumab, so we recommend antibiotic prophylaxis for 4 weeks. Our online resource provides more information about listeriosis. If you live in the UK, you can order our free listeriosis prevention kit, which contains a booklet (also downloadable) and various practical items to help keep you safe.

Strategies for limiting the risks from immune reconstitution therapies and infusion DMTs.

Infusion reactions

When you use agents that cause cell lysis (breakdown), such as alemtuzumab and intravenous anti-CD20 therapies, the contents of cells cause infusion reactions. To prevent such reactions or reduce their severity, we pretreat patients with corticosteroids, antihistamines and antipyretics. The exact protocols for each DMT differ; for example, ocrelizumab infusion reactions are generally only a problem with the first and second doses; therefore, many centres don’t give steroids with the third and subsequent infusions. The latter was particularly important during the COVID-19 pandemic when it was shown that the recent administration of high-dose steroids increased your chances of severe COVID-19. 

Ongoing monitoring

Once someone has been treated with a DMT, ongoing monitoring is required. What gets monitored and how frequently depends on the individual DMT. For a list of DMTs associated with important adverse events, please see our summary Table in ‘De-risking’ guide: monitoring requirements of individual DMTs.

The regulatory authorities usually put in place specific monitoring requirements, which can differ worldwide. It is important that you also enrol in your national cancer screening programmes. Being on chronic immunosuppression increases your chances of developing secondary malignancies, so please remain vigilant. 

Tests carried out regularly as part of ongoing monitoring.
FBC, full blood count; LFTs, liver function tests; MRI, magnetic resonance imaging; PML, progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy; TFTs, thyroid function tests; U&E, urea and electrolytes.

I want to reassure you that all licensed MS DMTs have undergone a thorough risk ̶ benefit assessment by the drug regulators, and the benefits of these treatments are considered to outweigh the potential risks. On balance, the level of immunosuppression associated with MS DMTs is typically mild to moderate; hence, the complications are relatively uncommon. MS is a bad disease and, if left to run its natural course, would result in most patients becoming disabled. To learn more about the natural course of MS, please read the section entitled What are the consequences of not treating MS?

DMTsSafety, Monitoring MS

‘De-risking’ guide: monitoring requirements of individual DMTs

Before you start taking a disease-modifying therapy (DMT), your MS team will carry out routine tests and investigations, many of which are repeated during subsequent monitoring or before switching to another DMT. The regulatory authorities that license the drugs specify their monitoring requirements. What gets monitored and how frequently depends on the individual DMT.

All licensed MS DMTs have undergone a thorough risk ̶ benefit assessment by the drug regulators, and the benefits of these treatments are considered to outweigh the potential risks. The table below summarises the main monitoring requirements of individual DMTs or DMT classes. For more detailed information, see the post on reducing your chances of adverse events.

AHSCT, autologous haematopoietic stem cell transplantation; CMV, cytomegalovirus; CSF, cerebrospinal fluid; EBV, Epstein ̶ Barr virus; ECG, electrocardiogram; HPV, human papillomavirus; JCV, JC virus; LVEF, left ventricular ejection fraction; MRI, magnetic resonance imaging; PML, progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy.

Diagnosis

Am I sure that I have MS?

The multiple sclerosis misdiagnosis rate is around 5% and this has major implications for individuals and the treatment of MS.

Key points

  • A wrong diagnosis of MS may have financial, social and psychological consequences for the individuals concerned, affecting major life decisions.
  • Some MS treatments have life-threatening complications and should only be prescribed for people with a clear diagnosis of MS.
  • Some of the diseases that mimic MS can be made worse by disease-modifying treatments for MS.
  • Diagnostic criteria for MS have evolved and now take account of clinical, electrical, laboratory and magnetic resonance imaging findings.

A case study

She had been diagnosed with multiple sclerosis 8 years ago and had been taking interferon-beta since her diagnosis. I told her that I didn’t think she had MS and that her diagnosis was almost certainly complicated migraine with aura. The lesions on her magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scan were non-specific white matter lesions and not inflammatory. Her neurological examination, spinal fluid analysis and evoked potentials (EPs) were normal. What clinched the non-MS diagnosis for me was the history of neurological events, which were too short-lived and migratory to be MS attacks. The final piece of the jigsaw was that a special MRI sequence showed none of her white matter lesions had a central vein, which told me that none of her white matter lesions was an MS lesion.  Her anger was palpable. She was angry because she had decided not to start a family and had changed her career because of the fear of becoming disabled in the future and not being able to work or look after a child.  This case illustrates why I always try to review the diagnosis of patients referred to me with MS and why it is important to answer this question before starting a disease-modifying therapy (DMT).   

Making a diagnosis of MS

Unfortunately, there is no single test to diagnose MS. Rather, MS is diagnosed by combining a set of clinical and MRI findings, electrical or neurophysiological investigations and laboratory tests. If these tests fulfil a set of so-called MS diagnostic criteria, the healthcare professional (HCP) or neurologist makes a diagnosis of MS. 

The underlying principles of diagnosing MS are to show the dissemination of lesions in space and time and exclude possible mimics of MS. The diagnostic criteria have evolved over time from 1) being based purely on clinical attacks,1 to 2) include electrical and spinal fluid tests as well as clinical attacks,2 and 3) to add on the use of MRI to help confirm dissemination in time and space.3–6  

Dissemination in time 

This means that two attacks or MS lesions must occur at least 30 days apart or that oligoclonal bands (OCBs) of immunoglobulins can be detected in the spinal fluid.

Dissemination in space 

This requires MS lesions to occur in different locations, for example, the optic nerve and the spinal cord. 

Electrical tests

The electrical or neurophysiological tests are called evoked potential (EPs) and test electrical conduction in a particular pathway. They can show lesions in nerve pathways that are not evident on the neurological examination or seen on MRI. The EPs can also show slow electrical conduction, which is one of the hallmarks of diseases that affect myelin, the insulation around nerves that is responsible for speeding up the electrical conduction of nerve impulses.

Laboratory tests

The laboratory tests are typically done to exclude other diseases that can mimic MS. Examining the spinal fluid for the presence of OCBs is useful in helping to make an MS diagnosis. OCBs are the fingerprint of a specific type of immune activation within the central nervous system (CNS). The OCB fingerprint is relatively specific for the diagnosis of MS in the correct clinical context. (OCBs are also found in CNS infections and other autoimmune diseases, but these are relatively easy to differentiate from MS.)

Please be aware that you may have MS according to the latest diagnostic criteria when you could not be diagnosed with MS using past criteria.

Why is a correct diagnosis important?

Neurologists get the diagnosis wrong in approximately 5% of people with MS. In other words, one in 20 people who have a diagnosis of MS in life does not have MS when their brain is studied post mortem. This data is based on a large study in a region of Denmark.7 More recently, a study from a specialist MS centre in the United States reported a misdiagnosis rate of approximately 15% in patients with presumed MS referred to their centre for treatment.8 

Why is getting the diagnosis of MS correct so important? Firstly, some MS treatments have life-threatening complications; you don’t want to expose people without MS to these complications. More concerning is that some of the diseases that mimic MS can be made worse by MS DMTs. Finally, a diagnosis of MS has many psychological, social, financial and economic implications. Even if you turn out to have ‘benign disease’, just having a diagnosis of MS, has implications for your life choices and may impact your ability to get insurance cover, to name obvious examples. I, therefore, advise you to make sure you have MS and not an MS mimic.

Common MS mimics

References

  1. Schumacher GA, et al. Problems of experimental trials of therapy in multiple sclerosis: Report by the Panel on the Evaluation of Experimental Trials of Therapy in Multiple Sclerosis. Ann N Y Acad Sci 1965;122:552–68.
  2. Poser CM, et al. New diagnostic criteria for multiple sclerosis: guidelines for research protocols. Ann Neurol 1983;13:227–31.
  3. McDonald WI, et al. Recommended diagnostic criteria for multiple sclerosis: guidelines from the International Panel on the diagnosis of multiple sclerosis. Ann Neurol 2001;50:121–7.
  4. Polman CH, et al. Diagnostic criteria for multiple sclerosis: 2005 revisions to the “McDonald Criteria”. Ann Neurol 2005;58:840–6.
  5. Polman CH, et al. Diagnostic criteria for multiple sclerosis: 2010 revisions to the McDonald criteria. Ann Neurol 2011;69:292–302.
  6. Thompson AJ, et al. Diagnosis of multiple sclerosis: 2017 revisions of the McDonald criteria. Lancet Neurol 2018;17:162–73.
  7. Engell T. A clinico-pathoanatomical study of multiple sclerosis diagnosis. Acta Neurol Scand 1988;78:39–44.
  8. Kaisey M, et al. Incidence of multiple sclerosis misdiagnosis in referrals to two academic centers. Mult Scler Relat Disord 2019;30:51–6.
Brain health and holistic management of MS, Causes and prevention of MS

What prognostic group do I fall into?

Having some idea of how bad your MS is, or not, will allow you to discuss important issues with your neurologist so that you can make an informed decision about your MS treatment.

Key points

  • It is hard to predict the disease course of MS accurately for an individual.
  • Population data allow us to define three broad prognostic MS categories: good, indeterminate or poor.
  • Given sufficient time, most people with MS will do badly without treatment.
  • Factors linked to poor prognosis in untreated people with MS are listed.
  • The wide use of disease-modifying therapies is changing the natural history of MS for the better.
  • Adopting a healthy lifestyle, in parallel with appropriate treatment, can help to improve outcomes.  

Predicting MS outcomes: an imperfect science

We can’t predict the prognosis of an individual person with MS very accurately. So don’t let your neurologist mislead you if he or she says you are likely to have benign MS. ‘Benign MS’ is a relative term and can only be used retrospectively once you have had MS for many years or decades. In the era before disease-modifying treatments (DMTs), most people with MS would eventually become disabled, which is why I prefer not to use the term benign MS to predict outcomes. I now use it as a treatment aim, because we want all people with MS to have benign disease.

Three broad prognostic categories

Applying population data to place an individual into a broad prognostic group is often helpful. It allows you to frame your disease in terms of potential outcomes and may help you balance the risks of some treatments against the potential impact of MS later in your life. Predicting outcomes in MS is comparable to an actuary working in the insurance industry; we try to give you an average prognosis with a wide range of possibilities or errors. For this reason, I try to keep it simple and classify people with MS into three prognostic categories: poor, indeterminate, or good. Poor in this context means that if you leave MS to its own devices and let it run its natural course, the average person in this category will do badly.

Most people with a predicted poor prognosis will do badly without treatment for their MS.

Given sufficient time, most people with MS will do badly without treatment. This is why I actively promote treatment based on the scientific rationale that preventing damage now will protect your brain reserve and cognitive reserve and improve your long-term outcome. This is the philosophy behind the MS Brain Health initiative and the report Brain health: time matters in multiple sclerosis,1 which everyone with MS should take time to read. 

Below is a list of factors that have been linked to poor prognosis in people who have not received a DMT. If you have fewer than five of these factors, you are likely to have a good outcome. In comparison, people with ten or more of these factors fall into the poor prognostic group. Most people with MS fall into the intermediate (indeterminate) prognostic group, with 5–10 of these factors. Some of these baseline factors are modifiable,2,3 so you can make the effort to help improve your own prognosis. 

Factors linked to poor prognosis

Please note that the factors listed here only apply to people with MS who are untreated.  It is clear that DMTs are changing the outcome of MS.

  1. Older age of onset (greater than 40 years).
  2. Male sex.
  3. Multifocal onset – more than one site in the nervous system involved with the initial attack.
  4. Efferent or effector system is affected early – that is, the motor (power), cerebellar (balance and coordination) or bladder and bowel functions.  
  5. Partial or no recovery from initial relapses – do you have residual deficits from your initial attacks?
  6. A high relapse rate in the first 2 years – that is, more than two relapses. 
  7. Early disability – an Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) score > 3.0 within 5 years of symptom onset indicates a poor prognosis. You can calculate your EDSS using an online calculator (web-EDSS calculator).
  8. Abnormal magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scan with large lesion load – more than nine T2 lesions (white blobs) on the baseline MRI.
  9. Active or enhancing lesions on your baseline (initial) MRI – enhancing lesions imply that the lesions are new and actively inflamed.
  10. Posterior fossa lesions on the MRI – these refer to lesions in the back of the brain that involve the brainstem and cerebellum.
  11. Lesions in the spinal cord on MRI.
  12. Obvious early brain atrophy on MRI – brain atrophy refers to premature shrinkage of the brain over and above what you would expect for your age. This information is unlikely to be available to you because neuroradiologists often do not measure or comment on it. 
  13. Retinal thinning on optic coherence tomography (OCT) – people with MS who have lost a lot of retinal nerve fibres do worse than people with a normal retina. Yes, the eye is truly a window into what is happening in the brain of someone with MS. 
  14. Abnormal cerebrospinal fluid – positive immunoglobulin (Ig) bands (known as oligoclonal bands, OCBs) in the spinal fluid.
  15. Raised neurofilament levels in your spinal fluid – this test may not be part of routine care at your neurology centre. Neurofilaments are proteins that are released from damaged nerve fibres, and high neurofilament levels indicate greater damage and poorer outcome than low levels.
  16. Low vitamin D levels – this is controversial, but several studies have shown that people with MS with low vitamin D levels do worse than those with higher levels. These observations do not necessarily imply that by taking vitamin D you will do better. The observation may be related to reverse causation, in that the MS-associated inflammation uses up vitamin D; more inflammation indicates worse MS and is therefore linked with greater depletion of vitamin D levels.
  17. Smoking – smokers with MS do worse than non-smokers. This is modifiable and it is one of many reasons why you should try and give up smoking. 
  18. Comorbidities – people with MS who are obese, have diabetes, prediabetes, hypertension or raised cholesterol do worse than people with MS without these comorbidities.4
  19. Cognitive impairment – people with MS with poor cognitive function do worse than people with MS with good cognition. You can’t really assess your own cognition at present; you need to have it tested by a neuropsychologist.

‘It won’t happen to me’

Humans have interesting psychology in that they tend to consider themselves to be the exception to the rule. Gamblers don’t enter a casino to lose; they always believe they will win. A person with lung cancer who starts chemotherapy believes they will be one of the 10% who is cured. When someone is diagnosed with MS, they believe they will be one of the 30% with benign disease. (The current dogma is that 30% of untreated people with MS will have benign disease.) 

This definition of ‘benign MS’ is based on having no or little disability at 15 years since onset, i.e., an EDSS score of 3.0 or less (no visible disability). However, when you interrogate people with so-called benign MS you find that more than 50% of them have hidden symptoms of depression, anxiety or cognitive impairment. Can we really justify this definition of benign MS? What is more, when you follow people with benign MS past 15 years, only 15% remain benign at 25 years and 5% at 30 years. If you get to 40 years of follow-up, half of these with benign MS will become disabled over the next 10 years.

Moving towards a more favourable outcome

Many will state that these figures are now out of date and there are newer and better figures, which show MS is a more benign disease. You are right, and there are several very good reasons for this. In population-based studies, the proportion of subjects with benign MS is greater than in hospital- or clinic-based studies; for example, in the Olmsted Mayo Clinic MS population, about 45% have benign disease at 15 years. The reason for this is that people with MS with benign disease often drop out of hospital follow-up, but still show up in population-based studies. 

The earlier diagnosis of MS, that is, identification of those who would not have been diagnosed in the past, is changing the definition of MS. For example, most people with a clinically isolated syndrome (CIS) are now being diagnosed as having MS. The wide use of DMTs is beginning to change the natural history of MS for the better; making sure that people with MS adopt a healthy lifestyle is another strategy that can be done in parallel. 

With currently available high-efficacy DMTs and the prospect of effective combination treatments in the future, the proportion of people with MS who experience normal ageing is set to increase. The blue areas illustrate the likely number of people with MS in each prognostic category.
With currently available high-efficacy DMTs and the prospect of effective combination treatments in the future, the proportion of people with MS who experience normal ageing is set to increase. The blue areas illustrate the likely number of people with MS in each prognostic category.
With currently available high-efficacy DMTs and the prospect of effective combination treatments in the future, the proportion of people with MS who experience normal ageing is set to increase. The blue areas illustrate the likely number of people with MS in each prognostic category.
With currently available high-efficacy DMTs and the prospect of effective combination treatments in the future, the proportion of people with MS who experience normal ageing is set to increase. The blue areas illustrate the likely number of people with MS in each prognostic category.

With currently available high-efficacy DMTs and the prospect of effective combination treatments in the future, the proportion of people with MS who experience normal ageing is set to increase. The blue areas illustrate the likely number of people with MS in each prognostic category.

The above figures illustrate what we aim to do with DMTs. We are simply trying to move you to the right, into a more favourable prognostic group. In other words, we want to make sure your MS is benign and that you reach old age with as healthy a brain as possible. Your brain reserve and cognitive reserve protect you from developing age-related cognitive impairment and dementia. MS reduces both of these reserves, which is why it is so important to protect them. 

References

  1. Giovannoni G, et al. Brain health: time matters in multiple sclerosis. 2015, Oxford Health Policy Forum CIC.
  2. Miller DH, et al. Clinically isolated syndromes. Lancet Neurol 2012: 11:157–69.
  3. Weld-Blundell IV, et al. Lifestyle and complementary therapies in multiple sclerosis guidelines: Systematic review. Acta Neurol Scand 2022;145:379–92.
  4. Kappus N, et al. Cardiovascular risk factors are associated with increased lesion burden and brain atrophy in multiple sclerosis. J Neurol Neurosurg Psychiatry 2016;87:181–7.