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Fatigue and insomnia, Sleep disorders

Fatigue in MS – a disabling symptom

Fatigue in MS is common, but it is often not investigated or managed properly. This post highlights the complexity of MS-related fatigue and explains why and how to manage it holistically. 

Key points

  • The different mechanisms underlying MS-related fatigue are explained.
  • The MS disease process, the burden of living with MS, and other factors such as drug side effects, comorbidities and lifestyle choices may all contribute to fatigue in MS.
  • Practical guidance is provided on managing many aspects of MS-related fatigue, using a holistic and systematic approach.
  • Not all fatigue is MS-related; it is important to ascertain if your fatigue could be due to another disease process.

Fatigue is one of the most disabling of all the symptoms of MS. It is the symptom that over 50% of people with MS would most like to be rid of. MS-related fatigue has several underlying mechanisms.

Fatigue caused by MS disease processes

Inflammation in the brain

Inflammatory mediators or cytokines associated with MS – in particular, interleukin-1 (IL-1) and TNF-alpha – trigger ‘sickness behaviour’. This is the response to inflammation that forces us to rest and sleep so that our body can recover. Sickness behaviour is also the body’s response to a viral infection such as flu; in fact, many people with MS describe their fatigue as being like the fatigue they experience with flu. 

Sickness behaviour from an evolutionary perspective is well conserved and occurs in most animals. This type of fatigue needs to be managed by switching off ongoing inflammation in the brain. Many people with MS who take a highly effective DMT report feeling much better and free from fatigue and/or brain fog. This is why recent-onset fatigue that cannot be explained by other factors (see below) may indicate MS disease activity. At present, fatigue on its own does not constitute a relapse.

Many patients with MS who have had COVID-19 tell me that MS-related cog-fog and fatigue feel like the cog-fog and fatigue of COVID-19 and long-COVID. As many as one in four people with long-COVID experience cog-fog, which includes problems in attention, language fluency, processing speed, executive function, and memory: these are the same problems that affect people with MS. 

Cog-fog related to MS and to COVID-19 could be linked to the same inflammatory mechanisms. This syndrome of systemic inflammation causing profound fatigue and cog-fog is not new. Some people with MS who have a systemic infection take weeks or months to return to normal; some patients with more advanced MS never return to their original baseline. This is why, as part of the holistic management of MS, we need to treat and prevent systemic infections as best we can.

The overlap between COVID-19 and MS-related cog-fog raises the question whether both are due to viral infections. There is some evidence of recent Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) reactivation in patients with long-COVID,1 suggesting that the EBV rather than the SARS-CoV-2 may be causing long-COVID symptoms. This is important because chronic EBV infection has been associated with chronic fatigue syndrome. It has also been suggested that chemo-brain is due to similar mechanisms, i.e. chemotherapy triggers CNS inflammation, which causes cog-fog.

Neural plasticity

When parts of the brain are damaged by MS, other areas are co-opted to help take over, or supplement, the function of the damaged area. In other words, people with MS use more brain power than people without MS to complete the same task. This usually manifests as mental fatigue and is why people with MS have difficulty concentrating for prolonged periods and multitasking. At present we have no specific treatment for this type of fatigue, but some patients find amantadine or modafinil helpful. There is also some emerging evidence that fampridine may help with cognitive fatigue. However, preventing damage in the first place should prevent this type of fatigue.

Exercise-related conduction block

Damage to axons that conduct electrical impulses is the reason why people with MS notice their legs getting weaker or another neurological symptom getting worse with exercise. We think this is due to demyelinated or remyelinated axons failing to conduct electrical impulses when they become exhausted. Exercise-induced fatigue is probably the same as temperature-related fatigue; a rise in body temperature also causes vulnerable axons to block and stop conducting. To deal with this type of fatigue we need therapies to promote remyelination and to increase conduction. These types of fatigue are treated by rest, cooling and possibly drugs such as fampridine that improve conduction. At the heart of this type of fatigue is localised energy failure.

Fatigue from living with MS symptoms

Temperature sensitivity

Many people with MS are temperature sensitive. Typically, high temperatures worsen fatigue, but low temperatures also affect some patients. Many people with MS manipulate their behaviour to avoid hot or cold environments. Some find it helpful to use cooling suits, but these are costly and are not covered by NHS funding. Cold or ice baths, swimming and air conditioning can all help with temperature-related fatigue.

Case example

One of my patients had a walk-in butcher’s fridge installed in her house, and she spends 30 minutes there 4 ̶ 5 times a day to manage her fatigue. She is a wheelchair user, and she sits in her wheelchair in the fridge.

Menstrual and menopausal fatigue

Menstrual (or catamenial) fatigue is a form of temperature-related fatigue that occurs in women during the second half of the menstrual cycle when their body temperature increases. It responds to paracetamol and to non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs such as ibuprofen and naproxen. Fatigue is a common symptom of menopause too; some women with MS who are menopausal and have fatigue find hormone replacement therapy helpful. 

Whether or not men go through a ‘menopause’ is a moot point. Testosterone levels do drop with age, however, and some male patients find that testosterone replacement therapy helps their MS-related fatigue. In the UK, the indications for testosterone replacement therapy are very well defined and do not include MS-related fatigue, so most people with MS who want to try this therapy need to pay for a private prescription.

Bladder problems

Intermittent waking due to bladder problems may result in fatigue from disrupted sleep. Bladder problems may also contribute to insomnia, with the affected individual needing to visit the bathroom frequently and unable to relax into sleep. For detailed guidance on managing bladder problems, particularly at night, please see the bladder and bowel section of the website, particularly the article on nocturia.  

Insomnia due to pain and discomfort

Other disease-related factors that contribute to fatigue include insomnia from pain, discomfort of being unable to turn in bed and restless legs syndrome (RLS). RLS is common in people with MS, affects sleep quality and is associated with poor cognition. For detailed guidance on managing these MS symptoms, please see the post entitled Sleep disrupted by pain and discomfort.  

A case scenario

“A 28-year-old woman with early relapsing ̶ remitting MS, on glatiramer acetate, and little overt neurological impairment suffers from severe fatigue, which is worse during the latter half of her menstrual cycle. She has recently split up with her long-term partner because of the impact her symptoms have had on her relationship. She has also had to stop working as a bank clerk because of her fatigue.”

Prof G’s response
This patient needs to be examined and will need an MRI and a lumbar puncture to measure her spinal fluid neurofilament levels. If she has evident inflammatory disease activity, her DMT will need to be switched. She needs a full medical assessment, which includes a screen for comorbidities.

The patient complains of cognitive fatigue and, despite not having much physical disability, she was found to have a high brain MS lesion load and noticeable brain volume loss. A formal neuropsychological assessment to establish if she has cognitive impairment would allow her to be referred to a cognitive rehabilitation programme; this can target specific areas to help her cope with her cognitive deficits.

To combat fatigue during her menstrual cycle, this patient did well on naproxen, which is longer acting than ibuprofen and paracetamol. Naproxen only needs to be taken during the second half of her cycle. She was screened for poor sleep hygiene, and she volunteered intermittent early morning waking due to bladder problems and anxiety. Both would need to be addressed as part of her fatigue management programme.

It was clear that the patient had both depression and anxiety, which were related to the impact of MS on her occupational and social functioning. This must be managed with cognitive behavioural therapy (CBT), mindfulness and an exercise programme. If this approach is not helpful, then I would suggest the judicious use of an antidepressant and, failing this, a referral to a psychiatrist and/or psychologist.

Fatigue resulting from other factors

Comorbidities and other diseases

Comorbidities and other diseases related to MS can cause fatigue and should be screened for. These include infections (see above). In people with more advanced MS, the urinary tract is most often affected, but other sites of infection include the sinuses, teeth, lungs, skin (intertrigo and pressure sores) and bowels.

Fatigue is common with thyroid disease; an underactive thyroid gland (hypothyroidism) and an overactive gland (hyperthyroidism, or thyrotoxicosis) cause fatigue. Diabetes, other endocrine (hormonal) problems, anaemia and heart, kidney, liver or lung diseases all cause fatigue.

Side effects of drugs

Fatigue is a common side effect of many medications, particularly drugs that cause sedation and some DMTs. Flu-like side effects from interferon-beta, for example, may make fatigue worse. Anticholinergics and antispasticity drugs are sedating, blunt cognition and may worsen MS-related fatigue. If you have fatigue, therefore, it is important to review your medications. MS is associated with polypharmacy, but some of the medications that cause or exacerbate fatigue can be reduced in dose, stopped or potentially replaced with alternatives that don’t exacerbate fatigue.

Lack of sleep and/or sleep disorders

Poor sleep means you feel tired in the morning. Most people with MS have poor sleep hygiene and almost half have an actual sleep disorder. A clue to this is how you feel in the morning and whether you have excessive daytime sleepiness. If you wake up in the morning and don’t feel refreshed and/or you fall asleep frequently during the day, you need a formal sleep assessment. You can complete the Epworth Sleepiness Scale online to see if you have a problem.

Depression and anxiety

Fatigue is a common symptom of depression and anxiety. Of the many online screening tools for depression and anxiety, the best one to use if you have MS is probably the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS). 

Obesity

Being overweight requires additional energy to perform physical tasks, and obesity itself causes fatigue. Recently an association has been found between obesity and depression. Obesity also predisposes you to sleep disorders; obese people with MS are more likely to have obstructive sleep apnoea. For all these reasons you should engage with lifestyle and wellness programmes to manage obesity and fatigue. 

Deconditioning

Deconditioning is simply the term we use for being unfit. If you are unfit, performing a demanding physical task makes you tired. Deconditioning is treated with exercise, which paradoxically can reduce fatigue. Patients may claim that exercising makes their fatigue worse. Yes, that does happen, but if you persevere and get fitter your fatigue often improves. The important thing is to start a graded exercise programme and build up slowly. Exercise does some incredible things to the brain, many of which explain why it is effective at treating not only fatigue but also depression and anxiety. Exercise is a form of ‘disease-modifying therapy’ and hence everyone with MS should be participating in an exercise programme. 

Poor nutrition and ‘food coma’

Some people with MS are anorexic and eat very poorly; as a result, they have little energy. Although this is quite rare, I have had a few such patients over the years. Similarly, overnutrition may have the same effect. Some of the hormones your gut produces cause you to feel tired and want to sleep; this is the so-called siesta effect (also referred to as food coma or postprandial hypersomnolence). Reducing the size of your meals and changing your eating behaviour may improve this. Postprandial hypersomnolence has two components.

  1. A state of perceived low energy related to activation of the parasympathetic nervous system (which is part of the autonomic nervous system) in response to expansion of the stomach and duodenum from a meal. In general, the parasympathetic nervous system slows everything down. 
  2. A specific state of sleepiness triggered by the hormone cholecystokinin that helps digest food and regulate appetite. It is released in response to eating and to changes in the firing and activation of specific brain regions. The coupling, or interaction, of digestion and the brain is referred to as ‘neurohormonal modulation of sleep’ and it underlies the reflexes responsible for postprandial hypersomnolence. There is therefore a well-studied biological reason why we feel sleepy after eating a meal. 

Managing food coma – practical tips

The first patient who alerted me to the problem of food coma in MS was so affected by postprandial hypersomnolence that she now eats only one meal a day, late in the evening. She can then ‘crash’ and go to sleep about an hour after eating. She needs to be functional during the day but cannot do her professional work if she eats anything substantial during working hours because of her overwhelming desire to sleep. She has tried caffeine, modafinil and amantadine to counteract postprandial hypersomnolence, but all these substances had only a small effect.

Other patients reporting postprandial hypersomnolence derive some benefit from the judicious use of stimulants. You can start by self-medicating with caffeine, but this may have the drawback of worsening your bladder function. Please note, however, that it is not advisable to take stimulants later than about 3 pm or 4 pm because they have a long half-life and can cause insomnia.

Some patients find carbohydrate-rich foods particularly potent at inducing ‘food coma’. Indeed, glucose-induced insulin secretion is one of the drivers of this behavioural response. This may be why people who fast or eat very low-carbohydrate or ketogenic diets describe heightened alertness and an ability to concentrate for long periods. Another option is to reduce your meal size: instead of large meals, try eating multiple small snacks during the day.

Exercise has helped some patients deal with postprandial hypersomnolence. I am not sure exactly how exercise works – possibly by lowering glucose and insulin levels and improving insulin sensitivity. The latter will reduce hyperinsulinaemia, which not only causes postprandial hypersomnolence but is an important driver and component of metabolic syndrome and obesity.

Postprandial hypersomnolence will be worse if you already suffer from a sleep disorder and excessive daytime sleepiness. Most people with MS have a sleep disorder, so there is little point in focusing on postprandial hypersomnolence and ignoring the elephant in the room.

Using your energy effectively

One strategy to manage MS-related fatigue is to imagine your energy levels as a battery, i.e. you have only so much energy in the day. People with MS have smaller batteries than people without MS and therefore need to plan their day and activities to maximise their use of energy. For example, if you do something tiring in the morning, you should rest in the afternoon to conserve energy for evening activities. Similarly, if you find some activities very tiring, such as taking a hot shower or bath, plan to do this in the evening before bed.

Conclusion

It is apparent from this discussion that fatigue in MS is more complex than we realise. So be careful, or at least wary, if your neurologist simply wants to reach for the prescription pad to get you out of the consultation room. Any MS-related symptoms that can affect sleep need to be managed accordingly. Like other MS-related problems, a holistic and systematic approach is needed to manage and treat MS-related fatigue correctly. Not all fatigue is MS-related. This is why it is important to take a step backwards and ask yourself if your fatigue could be due to another disease process.

Reference

  1. Gold JE et al. Investigation of long COVID prevalence and its relationship to Epstein-Barr virus reactivation. Pathogens 2021;10:763.
Pregnancy and childbirth, Women's health

Managing MS during pregnancy

Opinion on how MS impacts pregnancy is based largely on data that predate the current era of active treatment and the newer generation of disease-modifying therapies (DMTs). In this section I have therefore addressed many of the important issues that women who are considering pregnancy need to understand, including:

  • the effect of pregnancy on the course of MS
  • how to manage relapse during pregnancy
  • the role of naturally occurring interferon-beta and its possible implications for women with MS taking therapeutic interferon-beta
  • management of MS symptoms and morning sickness during pregnancy
  • the crucial issue of DMT safety and possible teratogenic effects on the developing foetus.

Will pregnancy affect the course of my MS?

Yes, pregnancy effects on MS have been observed at a group level, though it is difficult to notice changes in individuals. It is well known that MS attack rates drop during the second and third trimesters of pregnancy and relapses rebound again in the first 6 months after delivery. However, only a minority of women with MS have post-partum relapses. Breastfeeding may blunt the post-partum rebound, but this is not absolute. Therefore, most neurologists now recommend starting or restarting DMTs soon after delivery to try and prevent post-partum relapses.

At a population level, the more children you have, the better your overall prognosis. This effect is small and is based on studies done in the pre-DMT era. It may be due to the immunological effects of pregnancy that work like a DMT in MS. Immunologists have tried to understand this phenomenon in the hope of developing treatments for MS that mimic the pregnancy state.

How is a relapse managed during pregnancy?

In the event of having a relapse during pregnancy, a short course of high-dose corticosteroids can be considered. However, I limit using steroids to disabling and/or severe relapses, especially early in the first trimester, as there is a small risk of orofacial abnormalities (cleft lip and palate) and reduced birth weight from exposure of the developing foetus to high-dose steroids. There is also a risk of precipitating gestational diabetes in women receiving high doses of steroids during pregnancy. In the rare situation of a severe relapse unresponsive to high-dose steroids, plasma exchange may need to be considered.

Could neutralising antibodies to therapeutic interferon-beta affect my baby?

Naturally occurring interferon-beta is a cytokine (cell-signalling agent) produced by the body to help fight infections. As there is only one human interferon-beta, antibodies to therapeutic interferon-beta (IFN-beta) will neutralise the body’s own natural interferon-beta. If you are taking IFN-beta for your MS, there is thus a theoretical risk that neutralising antibodies (NABs) to the DMT might cross the placenta and affect the role of human interferon-beta in foetal development.

Interferon-beta is important for innate immunity and neutralising your own interferon-beta may put you at risk of getting viral infections. Interferon-beta also plays a role in foetal bone development, but the placenta does not mature in relation to immunoglobulin transfer until near the end of the second trimester of pregnancy, so it is unlikely that sufficient NABs cross the blood ̶ placental barrier to affect foetal bone development. However, in the third trimester, NABs will cross over the placenta into the foetal circulation and may impact the baby’s innate immunity. Despite these theoretical concerns, there is no indication from published data to support these potential adverse effects of NABs on IFN-beta.

If I fall pregnant while on a DMT, will this affect the baby?

This depends on which DMT you are taking and what you mean by ‘affecting the baby’. We worry most about teratogenic effects, which describe congenital malformations. Teriflunomide, S1P modulators and cladribine are generally classified as drugs that may be teratogenic, and hence precautions need to be taken so as not to fall pregnant on these agents. Foetal malformations usually occur very early in foetal development, often before the woman knows she is pregnant; therefore, it is difficult to do anything about it once foetal exposure occurs. Despite this, even for women who are on these agents and fall pregnant, we don’t automatically recommend termination of pregnancy. We refer them to the high-risk pregnancy clinic to discuss the options with an obstetrician. Many women continue their pregnancies with an uneventful outcome and a normal baby. On the other hand, some women choose the option of terminating their pregnancy.

A large amount of data from MS pregnancy registries and post-marketing surveillance indicates no increased risk of major congenital anomalies or spontaneous abortions (miscarriages) after exposure to interferon-beta or glatiramer acetate. Most neurologists are, therefore, comfortable with their female patients falling pregnant on these agents, continuing the treatment through pregnancy and then breastfeeding their babies.

Fumarates (dimethyl fumarate [Tecfidera], diroximel fumarate [Vumerity]) are not teratogenic and are unlikely to have a negative impact on pregnancy outcomes. We need more data from registries and post-marketing surveillance before we can be confident that the fumarates are safe during pregnancy. However, these agents are prodrugs and converted to monomethyl fumarate, which is part of our metabolism, so it is very unlikely that the fumarates will cause problems. I don’t have an issue with women falling pregnant on the fumarates and continuing them through pregnancy, but there is conflicting advice about this.

Should I continue taking drugs for my MS symptoms during pregnancy?

Yes and no. It depends on what the medications are for and whether they are safe during pregnancy. Ideally, you should wean off any symptomatic therapies or at least change to alternative medications that are safe to take during pregnancy. It is important to try and plan your pregnancy and if necessary be referred to a special medical pregnancy clinic so that these issues can be addressed. Many women with MS find that their MS-related symptoms improve during pregnancy, and they can do without symptomatic therapies. However, unless you are prepared to wean yourself off symptomatic therapies you won’t know.

Physical therapies should be continued during pregnancy. One could argue that everyone with MS should be physically active and do pelvic floor exercises. Pregnancy and childbirth may impact bladder and bowel function, so it is important to see a pelvic floor therapist to start pelvic floor exercises. The latter are taught to women in antenatal classes.

How do you treat morning sickness or hyperemesis gravidarum during pregnancy?

Treating morning sickness or hyperemesis gravidarum is no different in women with MS than in the general population. It involves hydration, vitamin supplements (in particular, thiamine) and the judicious use of antiemetics (for example, cyclizine, prochlorperazine, promethazine, chlorpromazine, metoclopramide and domperidone). If the vomiting extends into the second trimester, ondansetron can be used. In very severe cases of morning sickness, steroids may be required; for example, hydrocortisone 100 mg twice daily can be converted to prednisolone 40 ̶ 50 mg daily by mouth, which can then be tapered to the lowest level that still controls symptoms. For patients taking a fumarate, try and take your medication later in the morning when you are less likely to vomit.

What dose of vitamin D do you advise during pregnancy?

During pregnancy vitamin D requirements are increased and I recommend doubling the dose for supplementation from 4,000 IU of vitamin D3 to 8,000 IU per day. At the same time, women who are pregnant should be on iron and folate supplements that should ideally be started before falling pregnant.

References

Krysko KM et al. Treatment of women with multiple sclerosis planning pregnancy. Curr Treat Options Neurol 2021;23:11.

Other articles in this series on Pregnancy and childbirth
Planning for pregnancy
Preparing to give birth
Breastfeeding if you are on a DMT
Concerns about parenting

DMTs, Treatment strategy

How immunosuppressed am I?

Do you understand the difference between short-term intermittent and long-term continuous immunosuppression? Here we address another of the key questions to consider before deciding on a specific disease-modifying therapy (DMT).

Key points

  • Immunosuppressive disease-modifying therapies (DMTs) reduce the immune system’s effectiveness.
  • It is important to weigh up the benefits and risks of short-term versus continuous immunosuppression.
  • Non-selective DMTs suppress the adaptive and innate immune systems; selective DMTs do not affect the innate immune system and are thus associated with a low risk of bacterial infections.
  • The implications of immunosuppression need to be considered within the context of other health and lifestyle factors.

Which DMTs cause immunosuppression?

A useful way of thinking about DMTs is based on whether they are immunosuppressive. Broadly speaking, an immunosuppressive is any DMT that reduces the immune system’s activation or effectiveness. 

From a regulatory perspective, for a drug to be classified as immunosuppressive, it should: 

  • cause significant lymphopaenia or leukopenia (reduced white cell counts)
  • be associated with opportunistic infections (infections that don’t occur in people with a normal, healthy immune system)
  • reduce antibody and/or T-cell responses to vaccines 
  • increase the risk of secondary malignancies. 

Based on the above criteria, the interferon-beta preparations and glatiramer acetate are immunomodulatory rather than immunosuppressive. Teriflunomide is also an immunomodulatory therapy with the potential, albeit small, to cause immunosuppression. In real life, however, very few people with MS treated with teriflunomide develop significant lymphopaenia or leukopenia; if they do, we tend to stop the drug. The other licensed DMTs are immunosuppressive to a greater or lesser degree. 

Short-term versus continuous immunosuppression

The duration and intensity of immunosuppression further determine the risks. Short-term or intermittent immunosuppression associated with an immune reconstitution therapy (IRT) front-loads the risks, which decrease substantially once the immune system has reconstituted itself. In comparison, long-term continuous or persistent immunosuppression, which occurs with most maintenance DMTs, accumulates problems over time, particularly opportunistic infections and secondary malignancies.

Live vaccines are, in general, contraindicated in patients on continuous immunosuppressive therapies. However, someone with MS on an IRT who has reconstituted their immune system can tolerate and respond to live vaccines. The benefits of administering live vaccines always need to be balanced against the risks of the vaccine.

How immunosuppressed are you table updated format 180625 SS

The main characteristics of continuous persistent and short-term (intermittent) immunosuppression. Modified from Giovannoni, Curr Opin Neurol.1
AHSCT, autologous haematopoietic stem cell transplantation; PML, progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy.

Selective versus non-selective immunosuppression

Immunosuppression that accompanies DMTs may be selective or non-selective. Non-selective therapies deplete and/or suppress both the adaptive immune system (T cells and B cells) and the innate immune system (monocytes, neutrophils and natural killer [NK] cells). Alemtuzumab, AHSCT (autologous haematopoietic stem cell transplantation) and mitoxantrone are non-selective and are therefore associated with acute bacterial infections such as listeriosis, nocardiosis and cytomegalovirus reactivation. In comparison, anti-CD20 agents (ocrelizumab and ofatumumab) and cladribine are selective, do not affect the innate immune system and are therefore associated with a low risk of acute bacterial infections. 

How immunosuppressed are you_MET vs IRT_2 Dec 2024

Classification of disease-modifying therapies for relapsing forms of MS. Modified from Giovannoni, Curr Opin Neurol.1
AHSCT, autologous haematopoietic stem cell transplantation.

Other considerations

Please note that the implications of immunosuppression are not black and white but interact with other factors such as:

These factors have been highlighted during the COVID-19 pandemic, particularly in relation to the risk of severe COVID-19 and the variations in vaccine responses among people with MS (including waning of the immune response).

It is important to realise that we can derisk (reduce the risk of) some complications associated with long-term immunosuppression and the use of DMTs. Please see the post entitled How can I reduce my chances of adverse events on specific DMTs?

References

  1. Giovannoni G. Disease-modifying treatments for early and advanced multiple sclerosis: a new treatment paradigm. Curr Opin Neurol 2018;31:233 ̶ 43.
Brain health and holistic management of MS, Causes and prevention of MS

What prognostic group do I fall into?

Having some idea of how bad your MS is, or not, will allow you to discuss important issues with your neurologist so that you can make an informed decision about your MS treatment.

Key points

  • It is hard to predict the disease course of MS accurately for an individual.
  • Population data allow us to define three broad prognostic MS categories: good, indeterminate or poor.
  • Given sufficient time, most people with MS will do badly without treatment.
  • Factors linked to poor prognosis in untreated people with MS are listed.
  • The wide use of disease-modifying therapies is changing the natural history of MS for the better.
  • Adopting a healthy lifestyle, in parallel with appropriate treatment, can help to improve outcomes.  

Predicting MS outcomes: an imperfect science

We can’t predict the prognosis of an individual person with MS very accurately. So don’t let your neurologist mislead you if he or she says you are likely to have benign MS. ‘Benign MS’ is a relative term and can only be used retrospectively once you have had MS for many years or decades. In the era before disease-modifying treatments (DMTs), most people with MS would eventually become disabled, which is why I prefer not to use the term benign MS to predict outcomes. I now use it as a treatment aim, because we want all people with MS to have benign disease.

Three broad prognostic categories

Applying population data to place an individual into a broad prognostic group is often helpful. It allows you to frame your disease in terms of potential outcomes and may help you balance the risks of some treatments against the potential impact of MS later in your life. Predicting outcomes in MS is comparable to an actuary working in the insurance industry; we try to give you an average prognosis with a wide range of possibilities or errors. For this reason, I try to keep it simple and classify people with MS into three prognostic categories: poor, indeterminate, or good. Poor in this context means that if you leave MS to its own devices and let it run its natural course, the average person in this category will do badly.

Most people with a predicted poor prognosis will do badly without treatment for their MS.

Given sufficient time, most people with MS will deteriorate without treatment. This is why I actively promote treatment based on the scientific rationale that preventing damage now will protect your brain reserve and cognitive reserve and improve your long-term outcome. This is the philosophy behind the MS Brain Health initiative and the report Brain health: time matters in multiple sclerosis,1 which everyone with MS should take time to read. 

Factors linked to poor prognosis

Below is a list of factors that have been linked to poor prognosis in people who have not received a DMT. If you have fewer than five of these factors, you are likely to have a good outcome. In comparison, people with ten or more of these factors fall into the poor prognostic group. Most people with MS fall into the intermediate (indeterminate) prognostic group, with 5–10 of these factors. Some of these baseline factors are modifiable,2,3 so you can make the effort to help improve your own prognosis. 

Please note that the factors listed here only apply to people with MS who are untreated.  It is clear that DMTs are changing the outcome of MS.

  1. Older age of onset (greater than 40 years).
  2. Male sex.
  3. Multifocal onset – more than one site in the nervous system involved with the initial attack.
  4. Efferent or effector system is affected early – that is, the motor (power), cerebellar (balance and coordination) or bladder and bowel functions.  
  5. Partial or no recovery from initial relapses – do you have residual deficits from your initial attacks?
  6. A high relapse rate in the first 2 years – that is, more than two relapses. 
  7. Early disability – an Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) score > 3.0 within 5 years of symptom onset indicates a poor prognosis. You can calculate your EDSS using an online calculator (web-EDSS calculator).
  8. Abnormal magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scan with large lesion load – more than nine T2 lesions (white blobs) on the baseline MRI.
  9. Active or enhancing lesions on your baseline (initial) MRI – enhancing lesions imply that the lesions are new and actively inflamed.
  10. Posterior fossa lesions on the MRI – these refer to lesions in the back of the brain that involve the brainstem and cerebellum.
  11. Lesions in the spinal cord on MRI.
  12. Obvious early brain atrophy on MRI – brain atrophy refers to premature shrinkage of the brain over and above what you would expect for your age. This information is unlikely to be available to you because neuroradiologists often do not measure or comment on it. 
  13. Retinal thinning on optic coherence tomography (OCT) – people with MS who have lost a lot of retinal nerve fibres do worse than people with a normal retina. Yes, the eye is truly a window into what is happening in the brain of someone with MS. 
  14. Abnormal cerebrospinal fluid – positive immunoglobulin (Ig) bands (known as oligoclonal bands, OCBs) in the spinal fluid.
  15. Raised neurofilament levels in your spinal fluid – this test may not be part of routine care at your neurology centre. Neurofilaments are proteins that are released from damaged nerve fibres, and high neurofilament levels indicate greater damage and poorer outcome than low levels.
  16. Low vitamin D levels – this is controversial, but several studies have shown that people with MS with low vitamin D levels do worse than those with higher levels. These observations do not necessarily imply that by taking vitamin D you will do better. Low vitamin D levels may be related to reverse causation, in that the MS-associated inflammation uses up vitamin D; more inflammation indicates worse MS and is therefore linked with greater depletion of vitamin D levels.
  17. Smoking – smokers with MS do worse than non-smokers. This is modifiable and it is one of many reasons why you should try and give up smoking. 
  18. Comorbidities – people with MS who are obese, have diabetes, prediabetes, hypertension or raised cholesterol do worse than people with MS without these comorbidities.4
  19. Cognitive impairment – people with MS with poor cognitive function do worse than people with MS with good cognition. You can’t really assess your own cognition at present; you need to have it tested by a neuropsychologist.

‘It won’t happen to me’

Humans have interesting psychology in that they tend to consider themselves to be the exception to the rule. Gamblers don’t enter a casino to lose; they always believe they will win. A person with lung cancer who starts chemotherapy believes they will be one of the 10% who is cured. When someone is diagnosed with MS, they believe they will be one of the 30% with benign disease. (The current view among MS neurologists is that 30% of untreated people with MS will have benign disease.) 

This definition of ‘benign MS’ is based on having no or little disability at 15 years since onset, i.e., an EDSS score of 3.0 or less (no visible disability). However, when you interrogate people with so-called benign MS you find that more than 50% of them have hidden symptoms of depression, anxiety or cognitive impairment. Can we really justify this definition of benign MS? What is more, when you follow people with benign MS past 15 years, only 15% remain benign at 25 years and 5% at 30 years. If you get to 40 years of follow-up, half of these with benign MS will become disabled over the next 10 years.

Moving towards a more favourable outcome

Many will state that these figures are now out of date and there are newer and better figures, which show MS is a more benign disease. You are right, and there are several very good reasons for this. In population-based studies, the proportion of subjects with benign MS is greater than in hospital- or clinic-based studies; for example, in the Olmsted Mayo Clinic MS population, about 45% have benign disease at 15 years. The reason for this is that people with MS with benign disease often drop out of hospital follow-up, but still show up in population-based studies. 

The earlier diagnosis of MS, that is, identification of those who would not have been diagnosed in the past, is changing the definition of MS. For example, most people with a clinically isolated syndrome (CIS) are now being diagnosed as having MS. The wide use of DMTs is beginning to change the natural history of MS for the better; making sure that people with MS adopt a healthy lifestyle is another strategy that can be done in parallel. 

With currently available high-efficacy DMTs and the prospect of effective combination treatments in the future, the proportion of people with MS who experience normal ageing is set to increase. The blue areas illustrate the likely number of people with MS in each prognostic category.
With currently available high-efficacy DMTs and the prospect of effective combination treatments in the future, the proportion of people with MS who experience normal ageing is set to increase. The blue areas illustrate the likely number of people with MS in each prognostic category.
With currently available high-efficacy DMTs and the prospect of effective combination treatments in the future, the proportion of people with MS who experience normal ageing is set to increase. The blue areas illustrate the likely number of people with MS in each prognostic category.
With currently available high-efficacy DMTs and the prospect of effective combination treatments in the future, the proportion of people with MS who experience normal ageing is set to increase. The blue areas illustrate the likely number of people with MS in each prognostic category.

With currently available high-efficacy DMTs and the prospect of effective combination treatments in the future, the proportion of people with MS who experience normal ageing is set to increase. The blue areas illustrate the likely proportion of people with MS in each prognostic category.

The above figures illustrate what we aim to do with currently available high-efficacy DMTs (compared with older, lower efficacy treatments). We are simply trying to move you to the right, into a more favourable prognostic group. In other words, we want to make sure your MS is benign and that you reach old age with as healthy a brain as possible. Your brain reserve and cognitive reserve protect you from developing age-related cognitive impairment and dementia. MS reduces both of these reserves, which is why it is so important to protect them. With the prospect of effective combination treatments in the future, the proportion of people with MS who experience normal ageing is set to increase.

References

  1. Giovannoni G, et al. Brain health: time matters in multiple sclerosis. 2015, Oxford Health Policy Forum CIC.
  2. Miller DH, et al. Clinically isolated syndromes. Lancet Neurol 2012: 11:157–69.
  3. Weld-Blundell IV, et al. Lifestyle and complementary therapies in multiple sclerosis guidelines: Systematic review. Acta Neurol Scand 2022;145:379–92.
  4. Kappus N, et al. Cardiovascular risk factors are associated with increased lesion burden and brain atrophy in multiple sclerosis. J Neurol Neurosurg Psychiatry 2016;87:181–7.